The idea that there is such a thing as a “Raptors-type prospect” has taken a hit over the last few years.
With their two lottery picks since 2020, they took college freshmen (Scottie Barnes and Gradey Dick). With their two picks in the middle third of the now-two-day affair, they took players who logged three college seasons, but one who was relatively new to the sport (Christian Koloko) and another who was raised around the game (Malachi Flynn). There wasn’t a throughline between their three picks in the back half of the second round (Jalen Harris, Dalano Banton and Jalen Harris.).
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There is little to conclude within that group. Lengths, positions and playing styles all vary. There is an elite shooter, and non-shooters. Sometimes it felt as if they drafted for need (with Dick and Koloko, particularly) and sometimes it felt like position was a tertiary concern.
The Raptors go into next week’s draft with the 19th and 31st picks. They have so many needs and no cohesive track record in the last few years that it feels silly to lock on to a trait or position. Even their timeline, which would impact whether to prioritize long-term upside over the potential of an immediate impact, is open to interpretation.
With that in mind, let’s learn the six players most likely to become Raptors by the end of next week’s draft. We will start with guards today, and move on to wings and bigs later in the week. (A special thanks to The Athletic’s Sam Vecenie, whose work on prospect scouting is invaluable to readers and colleagues alike.)
Isaiah Collier | Southern California | 19 years old
6-foot-4 | 210 pounds | Freshman
16.3 points per game | 4.9 assists per game | 49.0 field goal percentage
Collier is the guard with the highest upside who could fall to the Raptors. He is an athletic beast who routinely tries to put pressure on the rim. Most of his creation for others comes from the ability to draw help defenders in the paint. He is very strong for such a young player, and strength usually improves as a player moves toward his mid-20s.
Unlike recent Raptors point guards, Collier is excellent at finishing at the rim thanks to his athleticism. That should open up more passes to him, and make them easier, too.
Given he’s a freshman, Collier’s game needs refinement. He is turnover-prone and his defence, which could be a positive down the road, was not good for USC this year. His shooting is inconsistent, and he doesn’t see the floor excellently if he doesn’t get to the rim. Presumably, a lot of that stuff could come with time.
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Raptors fit: The Raptors hope Immanuel Quickley and Dick fill their backcourt for a long time. They need depth beyond them, especially if Gary Trent Jr. and Bruce Brown leave this summer. Collier represents one of the bigger swings the Raptors could take on pure talent, should he fall to 19.
On the other hand, he doesn’t play with enough control that he would automatically raise the floor for the Raptors’ reserves. It would likely take a while for him to thrive within Darko Rajaković’s offensive system, given he is not a developed shooter and is used to having the ball in his hands.
Jared McCain | Duke | 20
6-3 | 200 lbs. | freshman
14.3 PPG | 1.9 APG | 41.4 3-point percentage
He’s more of an off guard than a point guard, but McCain can shoot well. He is one of the best pure shooters in the class. He will probably be gone before the 19th pick, but his size at least makes it possible that he will slide.
In a perfect world, McCain would develop his playmaking skills and turn into a combo guard. He is not that yet — you see the assist totals — but at least he showed he can make passes in sets run for him. He won’t be an offensive initiator early in his career, but he could grow into that role.
He is a high-character player, and that often translates into being a better defender than projected. McCain’s combine measurements say it will be a challenge to become a good defender. His wingspan is just 6-3.5.
Raptors fit: In the short term, he would make sense in hybrid lineups with Barnes as the de facto point guard. Playing him with Quickley would be a tough ask right now, except in offense-first lineups in comeback situations.
He doesn’t have as high of a ceiling as Collier, but his shooting likely locks him into being an effective scorer off the bench at worst.
Ja’Kobe Walter’s length would make him a good fit for the Raptors. (Justin Ford/Getty Images)
Ja’Kobe Walter | Baylor | 19
6-foot-4 | 198 lbs.| freshman
14.5 PPG | 1.4 APG | 37.6 FG percentage
Like McCain, he’s more of a shooting guard than a point guard at this stage. He has more size than his fellow freshman, though. He did not have an efficient season, but that is partly because he took difficult shots regularly within Baylor’s offense.
Walter has a 6-foot-10 wingspan, which should allow him to be an impactful defender once he adds more muscle. Still, he has a better chance to be a plus on offense, due to his polished footwork and movement, than on defense.
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He will have to iron out his shot selection in the NBA. Moving down in the offensive pecking order should allow him to do that, but he is not super athletic, making getting to the rim a challenge.
Raptors fit: His length alone makes him a possibility for the Raptors. Sure, the team’s defensive philosophy has changed since Nick Nurse’s departure, but his wingspan will make up for some of his athletic shortcomings. He understands team defence well, which could get him on the floor even if he would be targeted on the ball.
I worry more about his offensive fit, even if that is where more of his upside lies. Any player who relies as much as Walter did on long 2s is going to have to get that out of his system in the NBA. Doing that while the game is speeding up could be problematic, therefore making him more of a long-term project than he appears to be at first glance.
Crucially, he would allow me to buy a name-appropriate jersey for my dog.
Ajay Mitchell | California-Santa Barbara | 22
6-3 | 200 lbs. | junior
20.0 PPG | 4.0 APG | 39.3 3-point percentage
Mitchell is one of the more polished point guards in this part of the draft, a potential backup on opening night. Unsurprisingly as a college junior, his game is much more developed than the three freshmen above him. He has counters when his initial moves are stopped, and can excel in the areas where defenses try to funnel players.
His shooting is a big question mark. He was good from deep this year, but he lived in the high 20s and low 30s in his first two seasons. He has been efficient from other areas throughout his career, but the 3-point shot is new and therefore not guaranteed to stick.
He doesn’t have the burst Collier does. He has very good size for his position, but will have to use that and his smarts rather than his speed and leaping to make things work in the NBA. If his shot doesn’t come around, that would really limit his offensive ceiling.
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Raptors fit: Mitchell’s shot is the thing. If he can hang in the mid-to-high 30s, he is a legitimate prospect, and has the size and smarts to be a really good third guard for the Raptors. If not, he could wash out of the league.
His intelligence should allow him to thrive in a structured setting, so I think Mitchell could catch on pretty quickly to what the Raptors want to do on both ends. Plus he was raised in Belgium, which means more stories about international basketball. Yay!
He’d make a ton of sense at 31, less at 19.
Jamal Shead | Houston | 21
6-0 | 201 lbs. | senior
12.9 PPG | 6.3 APG | 40.9 FG percentage
He is a human lightning bolt, using his speed on both ends — to create for his teammates and eliminate space for his opponents. He has fan-favorite potential.
He’s also small. He was great defensively in college, but he might not be able to overcome his size playing against bigger players more regularly. He is not a 3-point shooter, which will hurt his ability to be as much of a maestro in the NBA as he was in college.
Even without a jumper, he is excellent at using screens. The NBA will force him to develop more of an in-between game, but he can slow down when necessary to allow a play to develop.
Raptors fit: Shead has some shades of Fred VanVleet and very different shades of Markquis Nowell. His soft skills — leadership, confidence, experience — make him a natural Raptors fit.
His size and lack of shooting put him at a great risk of washing out, though, or maybe having an Ish Smith-type journeyman career. The latter is a good outcome for the 31st pick in what is considered a weak draft, but the Raptors are at a point where they need to swing a bit harder. I’d be surprised, if not shocked, if he ends up in Toronto.
Cam Spencer | Connecticut | 24
6-4 | 205 lbs. | senior
18.9 PPG | 3.2 APG | 35.3 3-point percentage
He’s an older prospect, but he’s a winner. He has every soft skill you would want from a player, including a willingness to talk trash, apparently. He is a good decision-maker. He is a good shooter, with last year representing his floor.
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On the downside, to be blunt: He’s old, small and not athletic. Spencer would be the opposite of an upside pick. His shooting could help him stick, but considering he is not a pure point guard, he would be a complicated fit for any team.
He will be picked on defensively. With both Connecticut and Rutgers beforehand, he was a part of great defences, but that had more to do with the players around him than his own play. He plays hard, but that is not as much of the battle in the NBA as it is in college.
Raptors fit: I love the idea of Spencer at the end of the Raptors’ roster. This roster doesn’t have a lot of swagger, and I think Spencer’s toughness and confidence would be important elements to help the franchise regain some of that lost lustre.
He might not be a good enough athlete or big enough to hang. I would love him on a 2-way contract, but I think you have to go a bit bigger with the picks the Raptors have. If they add another late second-rounder? Sure.
(Top photo: James Snook / USA Today)
